The semiconductor industry has been discussing breaching the 1 trillion-dollar mark as it was coming out of COVID-19 and amid a boom year in 2022. The slowdown in 2023 had some resetting the dates for when the industry would crest the 1 trillion mark. The AI boom of 2024 has given renewed hope that the trillion-dollar mark could be reached by 2030. At SEMI ISS 2025 this was one of the topics mentioned more than a few times during the two and a half day meeting.
The ISS committee did its usual stellar job of creating the program and selecting speakers. This is one of the SEMI events where it seems like all the members have buy-in and help SEMI to make these ISS events memorable. And of course, the SEMI staff runs ISS smoothly year after year. That is probably the reason “the event sold out faster than a Taylor Swift Concert,” noted Joe Stockunas, President SEMI Americas
There were multiple themes running through the conference: The path to 1 trillion when and how? Workforce development, AI – which is part of the how; heterogeneous integration, fab development, the industry outlook, the geopolitical climate, and the impact on the supply chain on future growth. Sustainability and environmental issues such as PFAS are still significant topics but had less focus at this ISS.
Ajit Manocha, President and CEO, of SEMI, kicked off the conference, sharing his view on the state of the industry. His talk moved from the unprecedented challenges of both COVID-19 and the geopolitical challenges of the past few years to a vortex of uncertainties that are facing the industry. Most of these are mentioned in the above paragraph but Ajit highlighted the impact they could have on the industry, and the need to stay focused on addressing them. SEMI has implemented Semi International Policy Summits (SIP) to help keep its members aware of the above issues as well as working collaboratively towards solutions.
Workforce development (WFD) is one area where SEMI has a strong focus. Driven by Shari Liss, SEMI has implemented multiple programs to get workers and students interested in the semiconductor industry.
A part of ISS and the WFD is a student session where three, usually PhD students, get to make an elevator pitch, and then discuss their poster papers during breaks. The committee this year managed to pick students with papers that addressed some of the key topics discussed at ISS, and that are critical to the industry’s future growth. PFAS removal, heterogenous integration, and a study of copper pillars:
- Use of High-Pressure Membranes and Sorption-Based Processes for Complete Removal of PFAS in FAB Wastewater, Aron Griffin Colorado School of Mines
- Enabling High-density Heterogeneous Integration using Wafer-scale Chiplet Reconstitution Technology, Ashita Victor, PhD Candidate School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
- In-situ Study On Thermal Compression Bonding Of Nanotwinned Cu Pillars Student: Ke Xu, PhD candidate, School of Materials Engineering, Purdue University.
This last paper was supported by Lam Research and the Semiconductor Research Corporation showing their support of WFD and advancing technology.
Sheri’s team at SEMI has developed a comprehensive plan for workforce development and has been keeping track of the successes. SEMI is targeting students as young as third grade to start to stir their interest in semiconductors and science. This is one great example of SEMI’s value to its members in striving to create the workforce of the future (Figures 3 and 4).
You can’t write about ISS and not discuss the outlook for the industry.
The committee invited two very interesting speakers to discuss the geopolitical outlook. John J. Hamre, PhD, President and CEO, Center for Strategic & International Studies spoke on the “Fracturing World Order”, where the world power structure that developed after WWII is starting to splinter.
Imbalances such as China having a significant percentage of worldwide manufacturing, but a lower GDP, and the USA has a larger GDP but a smaller percentage of manufacturing play into the changing of the world order. The old-world order currently looks to remain in control but the other players are wanting their seats at the table. This struggle will play out over the next decade as the geopolitical landscape changes.
The Honorable Wilbur Ross, Former United States Secretary of Commerce, shared his reflections on economic and National security, priorities shaping U.S. semiconductor policy, and the road ahead. Ross said he felt that the incoming President would be open to semiconductor industry participation in his administration. Tariffs will happen, border control will improve, and that aggression against the USA will likely slow down.
From a macroeconomic perspective and an outlook for 2025, we learned that “it’s a good time to be in the semiconductor industry”. However, to a certain extent, it depends on which part of the industry you are involved in.
The current perspective is that AI will continue to be a key market driver in the foreseeable future. PC and mobile devices look to have single-digit growth, and the automotive and industrial sectors are suffering from the success of 2022, and 2023 with excess inventory expected to slow that segment’s growth in 2025. China remains a question mark as to how much equipment and chips they will be able to purchase in 2025, as well as produce.
IDC’s expectations are for 15.9% semiconductor growth in 2025 slowing to 2.7% in 2026. In 2028 IDC is forecasting 902 billion dollars. However, IDC and McKinsey believe that the industry is in an AI supercycle and that the demand for AI and networking has the potential to boost semiconductor revenue by approximately 300 billion in 2030, thus the chip market could see revenue in the 1.3 trillion-dollar range in the 2030-time frame.
While the industry welcomes this growth there are a couple of gotcha’s or major hurdles to get through to make this happen. First, according to Ajit’s kickoff presentation, the industry will need about 50 more 300mm fabs to make this happen by 2030, secondly, according to Mark Thirsk of Linx Consulting the materials industry will need to grow by 76% just to meet the $1 trillion forecast. Silicon wafers will need to grow from about 11,000 MSI to over 18,000 MSI. Not impossible; the industry just needs to get started now if they are going to meet this rapid growth rate.
So, at ISS this year the focus was on growth to achieve $1 trillion in chip revenue with the theme-ready set ramp. However, there appear to be multiple challenges adding to the vortex of uncertainty that will need significant focus and investment to reach that trillion-dollar goal in 2030.
