The global semiconductor industry is growing steadily as integrated circuits (ICs) are now a pervasive part of our everyday lives. Despite recent supply shortages and other challenges, semiconductors are nevertheless projected to become a US$1 trillion industry by 2030, with more than two-thirds of overall growth expected to be driven by automotive, computing/data storage and wireless technologies.
While the lion’s share of this total will belong to advanced devices manufactured on 300mm and larger wafers, the 200mm manufacturing segment has a vital role to play in helping the industry reach a $1 trillion valuation. The 200mm and below market is highly segmented, covering many different areas such as power devices, discretes, LEDs, sensors, and others. These areas overlap with the top-level end-market drivers.
For example, in the computing space, what comes to mind initially is leading-edge semiconductors for memory and logic, as they’re the primary drivers for computing, followed immediately by chips for artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analytics. From the 200mm perspective, if you are missing the non–leading-edge devices that go around that memory and logic, you still won’t have a functioning computer system – thus, while 200mm and below devices in computing may not be enabling, they are essential.
The other top-line end markets are less than 300mm centric. Communication will depend more on RF devices, while in automotive, the fastest-growing semiconductor content is power devices built on compound semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN); as well as sensors. For these devices, 200mm and below manufacturing is an enabler; even 300mm content in automotive won’t be leading-edge.
The “and below” of “200mm and below” must not be overlooked. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) devices, widely used for LEDs found in optical communications and control systems, are fabricated on 150mm wafers. Moreover, we’re not talking about wafers alone – a more accurate descriptor for this market may be “non-300mm,” to include panel manufacturing for advanced packaging solutions such as panel-level fan-out devices.
200mm Manufacturing Overcomes Hurdles
There are a few hurdles on the path to $1 trillion that the industry will need to develop strategies to cope with and/or maneuver around. First is the current geopolitical environment. While this doesn’t directly impact non-300mm, as these tools are not on the restricted list, 200mm silicon was neglected for a long time because of the focus on leading-edge devices. Chipmakers’ overall strategic planning and investment are now shifting to address the importance of lagging-edge technology nodes, as evidenced by the surge in new 200mm fabs. Transitioning some manufacturing to 200mm and below can ease competitive forces, enabling cost savings and optimized production volumes, helping to drive revenues.
Another hurdle that non-300mm manufacturing can help to mitigate is capacity overinvestment. For years, the global semiconductor industry overinvested first in LED capacity; and then in RF devices. The most recent example is GaAs for RF applications. GaAs fabs are running at a 30-35% utilization rate – primarily because, for every successful GaAs device maker, another three to four fabs have been established, creating overcapacity. The next technology where this could happen again is SiC – the current investment volumes may lead to oversupply in the next few years.
The key takeaway is that investment needs to be more strategic and less reactive. If everyone continues overspending and wasting resources while trying to get to $1 trillion, it becomes a bigger hurdle. More collaboration in strategic planning would help conquer this challenge – multiple companies coming together to agree on who invests in what over the longer term. This is a tall order, certainly, but it may become a must-do if we are to break the cycle of overspending/oversupply.
Material Matters
Materials play a critical role in the semiconductor industry and can significantly impact its ability to reach a $1 trillion valuation. As energy efficiency becomes increasingly important in electronic devices and data centers, materials that reduce power consumption are vital. SiC and GaN both help to improve energy efficiency and reduce heat generation. In addition to compound semiconductors, materials like high-k dielectrics are essential for achieving smaller transistor sizes and higher performance.
Whereas 300mm manufacturing is defined by geometry, 200mm and below is defined by materials innovation. Our focus is not on 7nm/5nm line widths but on, for example, obtaining SiC wafers with low defects. Implementing metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) and stacking materials to obtain the best performance are key material challenges that we look at in the non-300mm arena. GaN as the next alternative for power devices has not yet ramped up, but transitioning from silicon and SiC to volume GaN production will present new challenges. Regardless, power electronics are on a strong growth surge – Yole Group predicts that the market will reach $33.3 billion in 2028 with a CAGR of 8.1%.
Strategic Contributors in 200mm Manufacturing and Beyond
Companies like Plasma-Therm that have consistently focused on sub-200mm manufacturing are well positioned against the current technological and geopolitical backdrop. While those in the 300mm space are thinking about 200mm, we have built our business by centering it around 200mm and below. Rather than dabbling in SiC to take advantage of the power trend or as a means of downshifting to 200mm, we have strategically targeted this sector from the beginning. We’re making strategic contributions to elevating the visibility of 200mm manufacturing and below as its role in helping drive the semiconductor industry toward that $1 trillion market continues to gain momentum.
This article first appeared in the 2024 3D InCites Yearbook. Read the full issue.
